2022年太歲表怎么填
中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)仍(reng)(reng)(reng)(reng)處于(yu)疫(yi)(yi)(yi)后恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)期(qi)(qi)，相(xiang)(xiang)關(guan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)改(gai)革(ge)和(he)(he)政(zheng)策仍(reng)(reng)(reng)(reng)需持(chi)(chi)續推進(jin)；2. 投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)：整(zheng)體穩(wen)步(bu)修復(fu)(fu)(fu)向(xiang)好，尚(shang)未恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)至正(zheng)(zheng)常(chang)(chang)水(shui)平(ping)；3. 消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)：受收(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)拖(tuo)累(lei)，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)動(dong)力(li)(li)有(you)待進(jin)一(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)釋放；4. 率：信貸供(gong)給收(shou)(shou)緊(jin)，需提(ti)(ti)防相(xiang)(xiang)關(guan)風(feng)(feng)險；5. 價格：大宗價格推升(sheng)PPI上漲，但對(dui)(dui)(dui)CPI傳導(dao)較(jiao)弱(ruo)；6. 國(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)收(shou)(shou)支和(he)(he)匯率：經(jing)(jing)常(chang)(chang)賬戶回彈，趨(qu)勢(shi)或難(nan)持(chi)(chi)續，人(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)幣(bi)匯率仍(reng)(reng)(reng)(reng)面臨不(bu)確定(ding)(ding)性；7. 國(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)形勢(shi)：關(guan)注疫(yi)(yi)(yi)情(qing)分(fen)化與(yu)反復(fu)(fu)(fu)、國(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)貨幣(bi)政(zheng)策轉(zhuan)向(xiang)兩(liang)大風(feng)(feng)險，全(quan)方位(wei)積極應(ying)對(dui)(dui)(dui)。 人(ren)(ren)(ren)力(li)(li)資(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)而非人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)總(zong)(zong)(zong)(zong)量(liang)(liang)是(shi)(shi)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)長(chang)(chang)(chang)期(qi)(qi)發(fa)展的(de)(de)(de)(de)基(ji)(ji)礎；2. 如何保(bao)護和(he)(he)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)人(ren)(ren)(ren)力(li)(li)資(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)；3. 如何提(ti)(ti)高(gao)人(ren)(ren)(ren)力(li)(li)資(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)使用效(xiao)率。目前(qian)(qian)疫(yi)(yi)(yi)情(qing)在(zai)(zai)全(quan)球范圍內尚(shang)未完(wan)全(quan)結束，我國(guo)(guo)居(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)民(min)(min)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)和(he)(he)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)尚(shang)未恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)到(dao)疫(yi)(yi)(yi)情(qing)前(qian)(qian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)正(zheng)(zheng)常(chang)(chang)水(shui)平(ping)，仍(reng)(reng)(reng)(reng)處于(yu)“六(liu)穩(wen)六(liu)保(bao)”政(zheng)策驅動(dong)下(xia)(xia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)緩(huan)(huan)(huan)慢(man)恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)期(qi)(qi)，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)企穩(wen)根(gen)(gen)(gen)基(ji)(ji)尚(shang)需進(jin)一(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)筑(zhu)牢。考(kao)慮到(dao)基(ji)(ji)數(shu)(shu)效(xiao)應(ying)以及國(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)疫(yi)(yi)(yi)情(qing)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)好造成的(de)(de)(de)(de)外貿條件(jian)(jian)變化，我們(men)預計(ji)全(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)呈現(xian)逐季(ji)(ji)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)趨(qu)勢(shi)。結合(he)高(gao)頻數(shu)(shu)據與(yu)各分(fen)項的(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)趨(qu)勢(shi)進(jin)行(xing)測算，我們(men)預計(ji)2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)全(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)約為(wei)(wei)8.2%左右(you)。如主(zhu)要風(feng)(feng)險集中(zhong)(zhong)爆發(fa)，全(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)有(you)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)至7%左右(you)；如國(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)形勢(shi)整(zheng)體向(xiang)好，消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)平(ping)穩(wen)，則全(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)有(you)望(wang)突破8.5%。人(ren)(ren)(ren)力(li)(li)資(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)總(zong)(zong)(zong)(zong)量(liang)(liang)是(shi)(shi)指一(yi)(yi)(yi)個經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)體內考(kao)慮到(dao)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)素質（包括健(jian)康(kang)水(shui)平(ping)和(he)(he)受教(jiao)育(yu)(yu)水(shui)平(ping)）的(de)(de)(de)(de)有(you)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)參與(yu)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)社會活動(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)工作(zuo)時間儲備。在(zai)(zai)綜合(he)考(kao)慮人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)結構(gou)的(de)(de)(de)(de)變化、健(jian)康(kang)和(he)(he)受教(jiao)育(yu)(yu)水(shui)平(ping)的(de)(de)(de)(de)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)之(zhi)(zhi)后，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)最近(jin)20年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)以來人(ren)(ren)(ren)力(li)(li)資(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)總(zong)(zong)(zong)(zong)量(liang)(liang)整(zheng)體上呈現(xian)不(bu)斷上升(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)趨(qu)勢(shi)，2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)力(li)(li)資(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)總(zong)(zong)(zong)(zong)量(liang)(liang)相(xiang)(xiang)較(jiao)2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)14%。根(gen)(gen)(gen)據預測，隨(sui)著教(jiao)育(yu)(yu)和(he)(he)健(jian)康(kang)水(shui)平(ping)的(de)(de)(de)(de)繼續提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)(ren)力(li)(li)資(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)總(zong)(zong)(zong)(zong)量(liang)(liang)將在(zai)(zai)2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)之(zhi)(zhi)前(qian)(qian)保(bao)持(chi)(chi)平(ping)穩(wen)緩(huan)(huan)(huan)慢(man)上升(sheng)，可(ke)以為(wei)(wei)新百年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)華(hua)民(min)(min)族偉大復(fu)(fu)(fu)興提(ti)(ti)供(gong)堅實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)保(bao)障。我們(men)建議，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)(kou)國(guo)(guo)策應(ying)當轉(zhuan)變為(wei)(wei)人(ren)(ren)(ren)力(li)(li)資(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)戰略，更(geng)(geng)加關(guan)注人(ren)(ren)(ren)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展，更(geng)(geng)加關(guan)注教(jiao)育(yu)(yu)和(he)(he)健(jian)康(kang)。2022第(di)一(yi)(yi)(yi)季(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)，我國(guo)(guo)實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)為(wei)(wei)18.3%，比(bi)(bi)(bi)2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)四季(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)環比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)0.6%；比(bi)(bi)(bi)2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)一(yi)(yi)(yi)季(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)10.3%，兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)5.0%。目前(qian)(qian)疫(yi)(yi)(yi)情(qing)在(zai)(zai)全(quan)球范圍內尚(shang)未完(wan)全(quan)結束，我國(guo)(guo)居(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)民(min)(min)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)和(he)(he)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)尚(shang)未恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)到(dao)疫(yi)(yi)(yi)情(qing)前(qian)(qian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)正(zheng)(zheng)常(chang)(chang)水(shui)平(ping)，仍(reng)(reng)(reng)(reng)處于(yu)“六(liu)穩(wen)六(liu)保(bao)”政(zheng)策驅動(dong)下(xia)(xia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)緩(huan)(huan)(huan)慢(man)恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)期(qi)(qi)，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)企穩(wen)根(gen)(gen)(gen)基(ji)(ji)尚(shang)需進(jin)一(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)筑(zhu)牢。考(kao)慮到(dao)基(ji)(ji)數(shu)(shu)效(xiao)應(ying)以及國(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)疫(yi)(yi)(yi)情(qing)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)好造成的(de)(de)(de)(de)外貿條件(jian)(jian)變化，我們(men)預計(ji)全(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)呈現(xian)逐季(ji)(ji)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)趨(qu)勢(shi)。結合(he)高(gao)頻數(shu)(shu)據與(yu)各分(fen)項的(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)趨(qu)勢(shi)進(jin)行(xing)測算，我們(men)預計(ji)2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)二季(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)約為(wei)(wei)9%，全(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)約為(wei)(wei)8.2%左右(you)。如主(zhu)要風(feng)(feng)險集中(zhong)(zhong)爆發(fa)，全(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)有(you)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)至7%左右(you)；如國(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)形勢(shi)整(zheng)體向(xiang)好，消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)平(ping)穩(wen)，則全(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)實(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)際(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)有(you)望(wang)突破8.5%。1-4月，固(gu)定(ding)(ding)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)19.9%，兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)3.9%；但相(xiang)(xiang)對(dui)(dui)(dui)于(yu)工業(ye)、出口(kou)(kou)、消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)，投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)復(fu)(fu)(fu)蘇(su)進(jin)度(du)(du)(du)相(xiang)(xiang)對(dui)(dui)(dui)偏慢(man)、力(li)(li)度(du)(du)(du)相(xiang)(xiang)對(dui)(dui)(dui)乏力(li)(li)，整(zheng)體投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)尚(shang)未恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)至疫(yi)(yi)(yi)情(qing)之(zhi)(zhi)前(qian)(qian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)正(zheng)(zheng)常(chang)(chang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)水(shui)平(ping)。分(fen)行(xing)業(ye)來看(kan)，制造業(ye)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)進(jin)度(du)(du)(du)最慢(man)，兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)尚(shang)未轉(zhuan)正(zheng)(zheng)；基(ji)(ji)建投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)復(fu)(fu)(fu)蘇(su)乏力(li)(li)，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)低位(wei)徘(pai)徊；房地(di)產(chan)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)一(yi)(yi)(yi)枝獨(du)秀(xiu)，表現(xian)出較(jiao)強韌(ren)性和(he)(he)活力(li)(li)，是(shi)(shi)當前(qian)(qian)拉動(dong)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)要動(dong)力(li)(li)。展望(wang)下(xia)(xia)半(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，固(gu)定(ding)(ding)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)仍(reng)(reng)(reng)(reng)將保(bao)持(chi)(chi)穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)態勢(shi)，但增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)動(dong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)仍(reng)(reng)(reng)(reng)然減弱(ruo)，政(zheng)策加力(li)(li)刻(ke)不(bu)容緩(huan)(huan)(huan)。ACCEPT預計(ji)全(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)固(gu)定(ding)(ding)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)為(wei)(wei)8.5%-9.5%。雖然第(di)一(yi)(yi)(yi)季(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)居(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)民(min)(min)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)與(yu)社會消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)品零售(shou)總(zong)(zong)(zong)(zong)額(e)的(de)(de)(de)(de)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)分(fen)別高(gao)達17.6%和(he)(he)33.9%，然而較(jiao)高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)度(du)(du)(du)主(zhu)要是(shi)(shi)由(you)于(yu)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)低基(ji)(ji)數(shu)(shu)所導(dao)致的(de)(de)(de)(de)。綜合(he)考(kao)慮過去(qu)兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)整(zheng)體情(qing)況，當前(qian)(qian)居(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)民(min)(min)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)度(du)(du)(du)仍(reng)(reng)(reng)(reng)要慢(man)于(yu)疫(yi)(yi)(yi)情(qing)爆發(fa)前(qian)(qian)2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)與(yu)2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)水(shui)平(ping)。導(dao)致消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)反彈不(bu)足的(de)(de)(de)(de)最主(zhu)要原因，是(shi)(shi)總(zong)(zong)(zong)(zong)產(chan)出恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)并(bing)未完(wan)全(quan)反映在(zai)(zai)居(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)民(min)(min)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)的(de)(de)(de)(de)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)之(zhi)(zhi)中(zhong)(zhong)。除收(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)因素之(zhi)(zhi)外，年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)初(chu)疫(yi)(yi)(yi)情(qing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)偶(ou)有(you)復(fu)(fu)(fu)發(fa)與(yu)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)習慣的(de)(de)(de)(de)調整(zheng)也部分(fen)地(di)導(dao)致了居(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)民(min)(min)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)放緩(huan)(huan)(huan)。我們(men)認為(wei)(wei)，在(zai)(zai)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)總(zong)(zong)(zong)(zong)體性恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)大背景(jing)下(xia)(xia)，今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)三至四季(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)，我國(guo)(guo)居(ju)(ju)(ju)(ju)民(min)(min)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)有(you)望(wang)出現(xian)U型反彈。...
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