其實很多東西都(dou)是從老早(zao)之前定下來的(de)，比如拜(bai)太(tai)(tai)歲(sui)，人們習慣性的(de)會(hui)選擇在(zai)正月初八去(qu)拜(bai)太(tai)(tai)歲(sui)，或(huo)者(zhe)在(zai)正月十五(wu)之前。到年尾的(de)時候再去(qu)還太(tai)(tai)歲(sui)。時間(jian)就(jiu)是定下來的(de)，沒有(you)什(shen)么太(tai)(tai)多講(jiang)究。而(er)且對于貢品(pin)除(chu)了有(you)類別上的(de)講(jiang)究，具(ju)體是什(shen)么就(jiu)沒有(you)限制了，我家一年到頭無論什(shen)么祭拜(bai)祈福都(dou)是選擇旺旺食品(pin)，主要(yao)是把它歸為(wei)干果(guo)這一類了。...
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拜(bai)太歲(sui)與拜(bai)財(cai)神(shen)一樣，是(shi)全年都(dou)可以(yi)拜(bai)太歲(sui)的，按照傳(chuan)統習俗(su)，正(zheng)月初八(ba)是(shi)拜(bai)太歲(sui)的正(zheng)日子。正(zheng)月初八(ba)祈福(fu)拜(bai)太歲(sui)可以(yi)選擇以(yi)下三種方法中的一種即可。正(zheng)月初八(ba)以(yi)后拜(bai)也可以(yi)。
1，選擇太(tai)歲(sui)廟(miao)或是供奉有(you)太(tai)歲(sui)神像的道觀(guan)(guan)廟(miao)宇(yu)拜太(tai)歲(sui)。按照道觀(guan)(guan)廟(miao)宇(yu)安(an)排的流程(cheng)儀(yi)軌(gui)參拜太(tai)歲(sui)祈福即可。
2，選擇(ze)網(wang)(wang)上(shang)拜太歲、在線祈福拜太歲。 舉頭(tou)三尺(chi)有神明、網(wang)(wang)上(shang)網(wang)(wang)下一般同，可以登錄在線財(cai)神網(wang)(wang)、中(zhong)國(guo)太歲網(wang)(wang)在線拜太歲祈福。
3，在家(jia)設(she)立太(tai)(tai)(tai)歲(sui)牌位(wei)拜太(tai)(tai)(tai)歲(sui)。首先是(shi)制(zhi)作(zuo)太(tai)(tai)(tai)歲(sui)牌位(wei)：用紅紙寫上“丁酉太(tai)(tai)(tai)歲(sui)唐(tang)杰(jie)大(da)將軍神(shen)(shen)位(wei)”。然后安太(tai)(tai)(tai)歲(sui)牌位(wei)，牌位(wei)地點(dian)設(she)立于正西太(tai)(tai)(tai)歲(sui)方(fang)，擺放在供(gong)桌(zhuo)上。如果(guo)家(jia)中(zhong)供(gong)奉了(le)財神(shen)(shen)像等神(shen)(shen)像，直接在神(shen)(shen)壇增加太(tai)(tai)(tai)歲(sui)牌位(wei)即可，不(bu)用單獨設(she)牌位(wei)于太(tai)(tai)(tai)歲(sui)方(fang)。
拜太(tai)(tai)歲貢品(pin)：以四(si)款水果、香三(san)支、燭二支供奉(feng)。點香燃燭，向(xiang)太(tai)(tai)歲牌位三(san)鞠躬，敬(jing)奉(feng)太(tai)(tai)歲，祈(qi)禱“丁酉太(tai)(tai)歲唐杰大將軍，望將軍庇佑弟子(zi)今年逢兇化(hua)(hua)吉，好運常(chang)來(lai)，身(shen)體(ti)健康（可(ke)加(jia)上自己希望的(de)其(qi)他愿(yuan)望），年底(di)定當誠(cheng)心酬(chou)謝。”誠(cheng)心地祈(qi)福許愿(yuan)后，將拜太(tai)(tai)歲疏(shu)文(wen)(wen)與(yu)元寶紙錢一起焚(fen)化(hua)(hua)（注(zhu)意疏(shu)文(wen)(wen)要從文(wen)(wen)首開始(shi)焚(fen)化(hua)(hua)，最后焚(fen)化(hua)(hua)結尾部分），拜太(tai)(tai)歲儀軌完(wan)成。
拜(bai)太(tai)歲(sui)疏(shu)文可以聯系中國(guo)太(tai)歲(sui)網奉請，要將自己的名字、性(xing)別(bie)、住址及出生時間(jian)寫在疏(shu)文里面，以知會(hui)太(tai)歲(sui)應保佑之人。香、燭、元(yuan)寶紙錢與日常祭(ji)祖(zu)所用是一樣的。
太(tai)歲(sui)符(fu)(fu)與化(hua)(hua)太(tai)歲(sui)錦(jin)囊(nang)(nang)(nang)的奉請(qing)(qing)使用。出(chu)現犯太(tai)歲(sui)的情況(kuang)，可以請(qing)(qing)中國太(tai)歲(sui)網開光(guang)太(tai)歲(sui)符(fu)(fu)或是(shi)化(hua)(hua)太(tai)歲(sui)錦(jin)囊(nang)(nang)(nang)化(hua)(hua)解(jie)（太(tai)歲(sui)符(fu)(fu)、化(hua)(hua)太(tai)歲(sui)錦(jin)囊(nang)(nang)(nang)選擇一種即可）。太(tai)歲(sui)符(fu)(fu)分陰陽的，男士(shi)請(qing)(qing)陰符(fu)(fu)，女士(shi)請(qing)(qing)陽符(fu)(fu)，或是(shi)男士(shi)請(qing)(qing)黃色化(hua)(hua)太(tai)歲(sui)錦(jin)囊(nang)(nang)(nang)（錦(jin)囊(nang)(nang)(nang)內含太(tai)歲(sui)符(fu)(fu)陰符(fu)(fu)），女士(shi)請(qing)(qing)紅色化(hua)(hua)太(tai)歲(sui)錦(jin)囊(nang)(nang)(nang)（錦(jin)囊(nang)(nang)(nang)內含太(tai)歲(sui)符(fu)(fu)陽符(fu)(fu)）。
年(nian)(nian)(nian)頭(tou)拜(bai)太(tai)(tai)(tai)歲(sui)，年(nian)(nian)(nian)尾送太(tai)(tai)(tai)歲(sui)，可得功(gong)德圓滿(man)。每(mei)(mei)年(nian)(nian)(nian)的太(tai)(tai)(tai)歲(sui)神是不一(yi)樣(yang)的，拜(bai)太(tai)(tai)(tai)歲(sui)后要(yao)于年(nian)(nian)(nian)尾送太(tai)(tai)(tai)歲(sui)（亦稱還太(tai)(tai)(tai)歲(sui)、謝太(tai)(tai)(tai)歲(sui)），以酬(chou)謝神明一(yi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)來(lai)的庇佑。送太(tai)(tai)(tai)歲(sui)最適(shi)當的時間為每(mei)(mei)年(nian)(nian)(nian)農(nong)歷(li)小年(nian)(nian)(nian)前(qian)后，也就是臘月24日左(zuo)右，方法(fa)跟(gen)一(yi)般拜(bai)太(tai)(tai)(tai)歲(sui)步驟(zou)一(yi)樣(yang)。只是把拜(bai)太(tai)(tai)(tai)歲(sui)疏文(wen)換成送太(tai)(tai)(tai)歲(sui)疏文(wen)，焚化(hua)疏文(wen)的同(tong)時需要(yao)焚化(hua)太(tai)(tai)(tai)歲(sui)符。
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參拜太歲神是時候都可以
拜太歲（禳太歲、解太歲），我是建議在農歷三月之前
仙道貴生，無量度人
福(fu)生無量天(tian)尊(zun)...
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在你(ni)本命年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)時候請太歲(sui)， 本命年(nian)(nian)都犯太歲(sui)，所以到了(le)你(ni)的(de)(de)(de)屬(shu)相年(nian)(nian)，就要請符來解，讓自己本命年(nian)(nian)順利的(de)(de)(de)過去，男(nan)的(de)(de)(de)請陰符，女的(de)(de)(de)請陽符！一定不要搞混哦(e)，不然請不好太歲(sui)很麻煩(fan)的(de)(de)(de)！！
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【這里化用(yong)出自李白《訪戴天山道士(shi)不遇》的(de)樹(shu)深時(shi)見(jian)鹿】 句意為:深入樹(shu)林中(zhong),望那(nei)如煙如濤、浩蕩似水的(de)霧; 來(lai)到(dao)深海(hai)處(chu),賞那(nei)嫵(wu)媚著的(de)潮起、詩意著的(de)潮落。...
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中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)仍(reng)(reng)(reng)處(chu)于(yu)(yu)疫后(hou)恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)期(qi)，相(xiang)關的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)改革和(he)政策仍(reng)(reng)(reng)需持續推(tui)(tui)進(jin)；2. 投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)：整(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)體穩(wen)(wen)步修(xiu)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)向好(hao)(hao)，尚(shang)未(wei)(wei)恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)至(zhi)正常(chang)水平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)；3. 消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)：受收(shou)(shou)入(ru)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)拖累，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)有(you)待進(jin)一(yi)(yi)步釋放(fang)；4. 率(lv)(lv)：信貸供給(gei)收(shou)(shou)緊，需提(ti)(ti)防相(xiang)關風險；5. 價(jia)格：大(da)宗價(jia)格推(tui)(tui)升(sheng)(sheng)PPI上(shang)(shang)漲，但對CPI傳導較弱；6. 國(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)收(shou)(shou)支和(he)匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)：經(jing)(jing)常(chang)賬戶回(hui)彈，趨(qu)(qu)勢(shi)或難持續，人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)幣匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)仍(reng)(reng)(reng)面(mian)臨不(bu)確定(ding)(ding)性；7. 國(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)形勢(shi)：關注疫情(qing)分(fen)(fen)化(hua)與反(fan)(fan)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)、國(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)貨幣政策轉(zhuan)向兩(liang)(liang)大(da)風險，全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)方位積極應(ying)(ying)對。 人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)力(li)(li)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)而非人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)總(zong)量(liang)是(shi)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)長(chang)(chang)期(qi)發(fa)(fa)展的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)基(ji)礎；2. 如(ru)何保(bao)護和(he)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)力(li)(li)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)；3. 如(ru)何提(ti)(ti)高(gao)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)力(li)(li)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)使用效率(lv)(lv)。目(mu)(mu)前(qian)(qian)(qian)疫情(qing)在(zai)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)球范圍內(nei)(nei)尚(shang)未(wei)(wei)完(wan)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)結(jie)(jie)(jie)束，我(wo)國(guo)(guo)居(ju)(ju)民(min)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)和(he)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)尚(shang)未(wei)(wei)恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)到疫情(qing)前(qian)(qian)(qian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)正常(chang)水平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)，仍(reng)(reng)(reng)處(chu)于(yu)(yu)“六穩(wen)(wen)六保(bao)”政策驅(qu)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)下的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)緩(huan)(huan)慢(man)(man)恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)期(qi)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)企穩(wen)(wen)根基(ji)尚(shang)需進(jin)一(yi)(yi)步筑牢。考(kao)(kao)慮(lv)到基(ji)數(shu)效應(ying)(ying)以(yi)及國(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)疫情(qing)可(ke)能轉(zhuan)好(hao)(hao)造成的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)外(wai)貿條(tiao)件變(bian)化(hua)，我(wo)們預(yu)計全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)呈現(xian)(xian)逐(zhu)季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)下降(jiang)(jiang)趨(qu)(qu)勢(shi)。結(jie)(jie)(jie)合高(gao)頻(pin)數(shu)據與各分(fen)(fen)項的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)趨(qu)(qu)勢(shi)進(jin)行(xing)測算，我(wo)們預(yu)計2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)實(shi)際(ji)(ji)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)約(yue)為(wei)(wei)8.2%左右。如(ru)主要(yao)(yao)風險集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)爆發(fa)(fa)，全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)實(shi)際(ji)(ji)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)有(you)可(ke)能降(jiang)(jiang)至(zhi)7%左右；如(ru)國(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)形勢(shi)整(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)體向好(hao)(hao)，消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)穩(wen)(wen)，則(ze)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)實(shi)際(ji)(ji)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)有(you)望(wang)突破8.5%。人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)力(li)(li)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)總(zong)量(liang)是(shi)指(zhi)一(yi)(yi)個經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)體內(nei)(nei)考(kao)(kao)慮(lv)到人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)素質(zhi)（包括健(jian)(jian)(jian)康(kang)水平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)和(he)受教(jiao)育(yu)水平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)）的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)有(you)能力(li)(li)參與經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)社會(hui)(hui)活動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)工(gong)作時(shi)間儲備。在(zai)綜合考(kao)(kao)慮(lv)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)結(jie)(jie)(jie)構的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)變(bian)化(hua)、健(jian)(jian)(jian)康(kang)和(he)受教(jiao)育(yu)水平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)之后(hou)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)最近(jin)20年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)以(yi)來(lai)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)力(li)(li)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)總(zong)量(liang)整(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)體上(shang)(shang)呈現(xian)(xian)不(bu)斷上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)趨(qu)(qu)勢(shi)，2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)力(li)(li)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)總(zong)量(liang)相(xiang)較2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)14%。根據預(yu)測，隨著(zhu)教(jiao)育(yu)和(he)健(jian)(jian)(jian)康(kang)水平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)繼續提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)力(li)(li)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)總(zong)量(liang)將(jiang)在(zai)2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)之前(qian)(qian)(qian)保(bao)持平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)穩(wen)(wen)緩(huan)(huan)慢(man)(man)上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)，可(ke)以(yi)為(wei)(wei)新百(bai)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)華民(min)族(zu)偉大(da)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)興(xing)提(ti)(ti)供堅實(shi)保(bao)障。我(wo)們建(jian)議，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)口(kou)國(guo)(guo)策應(ying)(ying)當(dang)轉(zhuan)變(bian)為(wei)(wei)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)力(li)(li)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)戰略，更(geng)加(jia)關注人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)展，更(geng)加(jia)關注教(jiao)育(yu)和(he)健(jian)(jian)(jian)康(kang)。2022第一(yi)(yi)季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)，我(wo)國(guo)(guo)實(shi)際(ji)(ji)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)為(wei)(wei)18.3%，比(bi)(bi)(bi)2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)四季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)環比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)0.6%；比(bi)(bi)(bi)2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)一(yi)(yi)季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)10.3%，兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)5.0%。目(mu)(mu)前(qian)(qian)(qian)疫情(qing)在(zai)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)球范圍內(nei)(nei)尚(shang)未(wei)(wei)完(wan)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)結(jie)(jie)(jie)束，我(wo)國(guo)(guo)居(ju)(ju)民(min)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)和(he)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)尚(shang)未(wei)(wei)恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)到疫情(qing)前(qian)(qian)(qian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)正常(chang)水平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)，仍(reng)(reng)(reng)處(chu)于(yu)(yu)“六穩(wen)(wen)六保(bao)”政策驅(qu)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)下的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)緩(huan)(huan)慢(man)(man)恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)期(qi)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)企穩(wen)(wen)根基(ji)尚(shang)需進(jin)一(yi)(yi)步筑牢。考(kao)(kao)慮(lv)到基(ji)數(shu)效應(ying)(ying)以(yi)及國(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)疫情(qing)可(ke)能轉(zhuan)好(hao)(hao)造成的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)外(wai)貿條(tiao)件變(bian)化(hua)，我(wo)們預(yu)計全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)呈現(xian)(xian)逐(zhu)季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)下降(jiang)(jiang)趨(qu)(qu)勢(shi)。結(jie)(jie)(jie)合高(gao)頻(pin)數(shu)據與各分(fen)(fen)項的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)趨(qu)(qu)勢(shi)進(jin)行(xing)測算，我(wo)們預(yu)計2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)二季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)實(shi)際(ji)(ji)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)約(yue)為(wei)(wei)9%，全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)實(shi)際(ji)(ji)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)約(yue)為(wei)(wei)8.2%左右。如(ru)主要(yao)(yao)風險集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)爆發(fa)(fa)，全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)實(shi)際(ji)(ji)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)有(you)可(ke)能降(jiang)(jiang)至(zhi)7%左右；如(ru)國(guo)(guo)際(ji)(ji)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)形勢(shi)整(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)體向好(hao)(hao)，消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)穩(wen)(wen)，則(ze)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)實(shi)際(ji)(ji)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)有(you)望(wang)突破8.5%。1-4月，固(gu)定(ding)(ding)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)19.9%，兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)3.9%；但相(xiang)對于(yu)(yu)工(gong)業、出口(kou)、消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)，投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)蘇(su)(su)進(jin)度(du)(du)(du)相(xiang)對偏慢(man)(man)、力(li)(li)度(du)(du)(du)相(xiang)對乏(fa)力(li)(li)，整(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)體投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)尚(shang)未(wei)(wei)恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)至(zhi)疫情(qing)之前(qian)(qian)(qian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)正常(chang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)水平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)。分(fen)(fen)行(xing)業來(lai)看，制造業投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)進(jin)度(du)(du)(du)最慢(man)(man)，兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)尚(shang)未(wei)(wei)轉(zhuan)正；基(ji)建(jian)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)蘇(su)(su)乏(fa)力(li)(li)，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)低(di)位徘(pai)徊；房地(di)產(chan)(chan)(chan)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)一(yi)(yi)枝獨秀，表現(xian)(xian)出較強韌性和(he)活力(li)(li)，是(shi)當(dang)前(qian)(qian)(qian)拉動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主要(yao)(yao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)。展望(wang)下半年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，固(gu)定(ding)(ding)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)仍(reng)(reng)(reng)將(jiang)保(bao)持穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)態勢(shi)，但增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)能可(ke)能仍(reng)(reng)(reng)然(ran)減弱，政策加(jia)力(li)(li)刻(ke)不(bu)容緩(huan)(huan)。ACCEPT預(yu)計全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)固(gu)定(ding)(ding)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)投(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)為(wei)(wei)8.5%-9.5%。雖然(ran)第一(yi)(yi)季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)居(ju)(ju)民(min)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)與社會(hui)(hui)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)品零售(shou)總(zong)額的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)高(gao)達(da)17.6%和(he)33.9%，然(ran)而較高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)速(su)(su)(su)(su)度(du)(du)(du)主要(yao)(yao)是(shi)由于(yu)(yu)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)低(di)基(ji)數(shu)所導致(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。綜合考(kao)(kao)慮(lv)過去(qu)兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)整(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)體情(qing)況，當(dang)前(qian)(qian)(qian)居(ju)(ju)民(min)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)速(su)(su)(su)(su)度(du)(du)(du)仍(reng)(reng)(reng)要(yao)(yao)慢(man)(man)于(yu)(yu)疫情(qing)爆發(fa)(fa)前(qian)(qian)(qian)2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)與2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)水平(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)(ping)。導致(zhi)(zhi)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)反(fan)(fan)彈不(bu)足(zu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)最主要(yao)(yao)原(yuan)因，是(shi)總(zong)產(chan)(chan)(chan)出恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)并未(wei)(wei)完(wan)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)反(fan)(fan)映在(zai)居(ju)(ju)民(min)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)之中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)。除收(shou)(shou)入(ru)因素之外(wai)，年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)初(chu)疫情(qing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)偶有(you)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)發(fa)(fa)與消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)習慣的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)調整(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)也部分(fen)(fen)地(di)導致(zhi)(zhi)了(le)居(ju)(ju)民(min)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)放(fang)緩(huan)(huan)。我(wo)們認為(wei)(wei)，在(zai)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)總(zong)體性恢(hui)(hui)(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)大(da)背景下，今年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)三至(zhi)四季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)，我(wo)國(guo)(guo)居(ju)(ju)民(min)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)有(you)望(wang)出現(xian)(xian)U型反(fan)(fan)彈。...
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